FEATURE: Indonesia votes 2009

The world's most populous Muslim country will go to the polls twice this year, with legislative elections scheduled for April, followed by presidential polls in July.

We take a closer look at what's shaping up to be the most fiercely fought election in Indonesian history.

Corinne Podger and Tito Ambyo

Last Updated: Mon, 9 Mar 2009 11:30:00 +1100

Indonesia will host two of the biggest one-day elections this year, when more than 170 million people will vote first in parliamentary elections on April 9, followed by presidential elections on July 8.

The April polls will contest 128 seats in the Indonesian upper house, the Regional Representatives Council, and 550 seats in the lower house, or People's Representative Council.

Official campaigning opened in July last year with a series of invitation-only meetings and media campaigns, but the public campaign starts in earnest on March 16.

Following the trend set in Indonesia's first two post-Suharto elections in 1999 and 2004, dozens of parties initially sought to run in this year's general elections, but only 38 met all the eligibility requirements. Another six parties will contest in Aceh only.

Analysts believe the polls will be dominated by a dozen or so parties which are widely expected to win a significant number of seats. The main contenders are President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, its political ally and ruling party of the Suharto era, Golkar, led by Yusuf Kalla, and the main Indonesian opposition of former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, the PDI-P.

Contending parties are broadly divided into those with secular and religious backgrounds, although several new parties run by former generals have also emerged in the past couple of years.

The lines have also become more blurred, with Islamic parties looking to boost popular support by joining forces with traditionally secular parties, evidenced by the coalition talks between Megawati's PDI-P and the Islamic Prosperous Justice Party, the PKS.

Economy rises to the fore

Past general elections in Indonesia have been focused less on issues and more on party identity and the personalities of political leaders, but in 2009 more parties are developing policy platforms built around specific issues affecting the country, such as health insurance and rights for overseas workers.

The change to the Indonesian political landscape is likely to be permanent, and had its beginnings in 2004, when the PKS surprised many by winning 7.3 per cent of the popular vote due at least in part to a strong policy platform based on the inclusion of syariah within the national law framework.

And analysts say that with the global economic crisis predicted to worsen in 2009, the ability to handle the economy has topped the list in voter surveys, a trend that may further undermine personality-driven politics in Indonesia.

The ruling Democratic Party points to successes it claims to have had in managing the economy throughout the current global crisis, and that income per capita is at its highest level in Indonesian economic history. It has emphasised reductions in unemployment and poverty, and its moves to cut fuel prices.

In response, former president Megawati's PDI-P has singled out the Democratic Party's handling of the economy for strident criticism, arguing the much-vaunted cuts to fuel prices have matched falling world oil prices.

"There was no innovation or hard work needed to cut fuel prices," she said.

Newspaper editorials suggest the shift to a policy-driven political landscape may be bad news Indonesia's biggest party Golkar, which has been frequently rebuked by the media for failing to produce either a coherent range of policies or a presidential candidate in the months leading up to the parliamentary polls.

Golkar is to hold its national leadership meeting in March to discuss a procedure for naming a presidential candidate.

If the voter surveys are correct, the delay could cost Golkar an even greater share of its past political dominance, as smaller and newer parties put forward clearly defined economic policies with a view to wresting votes away from the bigger players.

The relative political newcomer, the People's Conscience Party, led by former military commander Wiranto, has a raft of clear economic promises, including job creation, and measures to lure home Indonesian agricultural workers from Malaysia, with a view to boosting domestic food production and reducing imports.

"In future, the term illegal immigrants will no longer be used for Indonesians if they return home and be their own boss as farmers," Wiranto told Bernama news agency on a recent visit to Kuala Lumpur.

Meanwhile, the Greater Indonesia movement Party, led by former general Prabowo, is campaigning on strengthening "the people's economy", particularly the agricultural sector, with a view to reviving Indonesia's fortunes as an "Asian tiger".

Chasing the 'golput' vote

The surge in policy development is driven, too, by hopes of winning the votes at stake in Indonesia's "golput" sector. The term is a contraction of Golongan Putih, "white group", and also a play on "Golkar", and was coined during the Suharto regime to refer to spoiled or blank votes cast by disenfranchised voters.

While 95 per cent of the electorate turned out for the first post-Suharto polls in 1999, there has been a steady decline in voter participation ever since, with the golput vote in 2004 accounting for an estimated 25 per cent of all votes cast - outscoring the top vote-winning Golkar party, which received just 21.6 per cent of the popular vote.

Analysts say the trend is mirrored in Western democracies, and may demonstrate greater political maturity among voters, who refuse to settle for parties or candidates perceived as being out of touch with public needs and aspirations. But there is also speculation that Indonesia's democratic experiment, like its authoritarian forerunner, has failed to adequately overcome problems of inequality, injustice and corruption.

Last year the golput rate in the Central Java governor elections was estimated at around 70 per cent, and pollsters Indo Barometer predict the April polls could see golput rates as high as 40 per cent.

The phenomenon has alarmed politicians, with the Cilacap regent, Probo Yulastoro, reportedly promising 23 district chiefs in his regency a free motorcycle each if they could keep golput levels below 5 per cent in recent elections. In its recent fatwa, which included bans on yoga and smoking, the National Ulama Council also outlawed golput - a move that received backing from several political parties, to the alarm of human rights groups.

Indeed, at least a month before the fatwa was announced, the chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly, Hidayat Nur Wahid, was already pushing for it, saying it was "important for the success of the general election".

Making every vote count

Not all invalid ballot papers are 'golput' votes.

Practice runs show widespread confusion over how to mark the ballots -- whether with a tick or a punched hole -- posing a potential "hanging chad" issue in which many ballots might be declared spoiled.

Head of Indonesia's General Election Commission, Abdul Hafiz Anshary, says up to one fifth of votes might not be cast or may be declared invalid as a result of confusion over how to mark them, a significant portion given that a party needs to win 20 per cent of the votes or one quarter of the seats in order to field a presidential candidate.

Each of the 700 million ballot papers for national, provincial, and district elections measure 84 cm by 54 cm, or the size of a fold-out street map. Some even run to two huge pages to accommodate 38 or more different parties.

"If a voter waits until he's inside the booth before making up his mind, he could be there for an hour," said Anshary.

Protection against corruption

The plethora of parties all competing to convince an increasingly sceptical electorate to get out and vote promises to make the 2009 election campaign one of the most fiercely fought in Indonesian history, and observers are already worried about the potential for corruption and intimidation.

The National Commission on Human Rights, which received reports of intimidation during Indonesia's last elections, has urged the government to protect the rights of citizens who choose not to vote.

At a recent press conference in Jakarta, commission chairman Ifdal Kasim told reporters that public awareness campaigns to educate people about democracy would be more valuable than an Islamic ban on voter abstinence.

"The right to vote is a basic right of the individual and the state must protect that right and respect it," he said.

"Neither the society or state have the right to hinder people's choices through moral sanctions or discrimination," Commission vice-chair Ridha Saleh added.

And not all politicians are in favour of the fatwa on golput either, saying it blurs issues relating to democracy and religion - which are important to keep separate.

Independent presidential candidate Fajroel Rahman expressed this view in a message to an online Indonesian news service, saying that it was "not proportional to mix issues of golput with religion".

There are some, too, who believe the fatwa may discourage even more voters from taking part in this year's elections, including the head of the Indonesian polling firm Indobarometer, Muhammad Qodari, who says it could further increase voter dissatisfaction with the country's politicians.

That dissatisfaction can be seen writ large on Indonesian political blogs, with this comment from a blogger named Nindrianto typifying the response: "We can't be bothered anymore, no change comes out of this, we're tired of being lied to, and we don't know any of the candidates," he writes.

Rainbow nation?

While the elections are a serious business, there are some lighter elements. In 2004 voters expressed their support for the top three candidates, Yudhoyono, Megawati and Abdurrahman Wahid, by wearing brightly coloured red, blue, or yellow and black shirts. The huge number of new parties on the political scene promises to make election rallies a rainbow of vibrant colour.

It is good news for Indonesian t-shirt and screen printing manufacturers. In mid-January, Muhammad Agus Salim, who owns a screen-printing business in Bantul in Yogyakarta province, said orders for t-shirts were up by 50 per cent on December. Demand is also up for banners, hats and flags to be distributed to party supporters.

Indeed President Yudhoyono has raised the possibility that the enormous demand for these items could help lift the country's garment industry out of the economic doldrums.

"Political party leaders, order more t-shirts, and order even more banners," he instructed Indonesia's political elite, at the recent opening ceremony of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce assembly at the main Convention Centre in Jakarta.

But Wahid Achmad, another Yogyakarta screen-printer, says he is seeking deposits for these items to be paid up front. He says in the past legislative candidates can take months to pay up, depending on the success of their campaign.

Meanwhile, many parties, particularly those new on the electoral scene, hope to attract millions of young Indonesians, particularly those who are voting for the first time.

Many young Indonesians have expressed frustration that their politicians are out of touch and unresponsive to the responsibilities of modern democracy.

Capitalising on that frustration is the Indonesia Youth Party, which formed in March 2007 and will be contesting its first general election this year. The party limits the age of its committee members to 45 years.

In its declaration, co-founder Hasanuddin Yusuf said the IYF wants to "increase the political participation of Indonesian people and youths as main actors in the nation's political scenes," with an explicit aim to "leave behind old politicians with old ideas".

Presidential elections

The outcome of the general parliamentary elections is expected to be made official by May 9, giving millions of Indonesians two months respite before going back to the polls to elect the country's president. If necessary, a second round will be held on September 8.

President Yudhoyono, who was elected in 2004 in Indonesia's first direct presidential election, confirmed last September that he would seek a second term.

Despite a first term plagued by natural disasters, including the Asian tsunami and a series of devastating earthquakes, and the more recent global economic turndown, President Yudhoyono has consistently led the polls against all other contenders.

He remains well ahead of his two most serious challengers, the former presidents Abdurrahman Wahid and Megawati Sukarnoputri, and he has won the support of several political parties, including Golkar and the Islamic Crescent Star Party.

But President Yudhoyono is just one of many Golkar-supported presidential candidates - and not all the potential contenders have thrown their names into the race. Golkar's chairman, the current Indonesian vice president Jusuf Kalla, is understood to be awaiting the results of the April polls before deciding whether to launch an official presidential challenge.

Free and fair polls

The UNDP is coordinating and distributing international assistance, which will also help pay for the creation of an election results centre and the training of election officials.

Australia is providing more than $A6 million in the lead-up to the parliamentary and presidential elections, to help Indonesian officials meet the enormous logistical challenges of running a one-day election taking place at more than half a million polling stations on some 17,000 islands.

Australian foreign minister Stephen Smith says the assistance aims to help make Indonesia's 2009 elections as transparent as possible.

UNDP spokesman Haakan Bjorkman says the international community wants both the parliamentary and general elections to be free and fair.

"Indonesia has emerged as the strongest and most healthy democracy in Southeast Asia, so we predict in 2009 that all eyes will be on Indonesia to see if the election assistance can work in a good way," he told reporters recently.

"The stakes are very high for this region."

PARTIES CONTESTING APRIL 9 GENERAL ELECTIONS

Archipelago Republic Party, Concern for the Nation Functional Party, Crescent Star Party, Democratic Nationhood Party, Democratic Party, Democratic Renewal Party, Freedom Party, Golkar, Great Indonesia Movement Party, Indonesian Democratic Party of Devotion, Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle, Indonesian Justice and Unity Party, Indonesian Nahdlatul Community Party, Indonesian National Party Marhaenism, Indonesian National Populist Fortress Party, Indonesian Unity Party, Indonesian Workers and Employers Party, Indonesian Youth Party, Labor Party, National Awakening Party, National Mandate Party, National People's Concern Party , New Indonesia Party of Struggle, Patriot Party, People's Conscience Party, Prosperous Indonesia Party, Prosperous Justice Party, Prosperous Peace Party, Reform Star Party, Regional Unity Party, Sovereignty Party, The National Front Party, Ulema National Awakening Party, United Development Party, Vanguard party

Parties contesting in Aceh only

Aceh Party, Aceh People's Party, Aceh Sovereignty Party, Aceh Unity Party, Independent Voice of the Acehnese Party, Prosperous and Safe Aceh Party