FEATURE: Asia: The Big Questions - United States

The United States is talking about altering its military approach to Asia, while the region contemplates an economic future less directly linked to the fortunes of America.

In a series of reports, Radio Australia's associate editor for the Asia Pacific, Graeme Dobell, looks at the big questions facing Asia.

The fourth question is: In the changed economic and security environment, what is America's new role in Asia?

Graeme Dobell

Last Updated: Wed, 1 Jul 2009 12:59:00 +1000

If there's been a pax-Americana - an American military dominance in Asia since World War 2, it has always been questioned: The Korean War, the Vietnam War, the face-off with the Soviet Union, and now the rise of China.

The military guarantee offered by America was linked to the economic opportunity - America as a huge market for industrialising Asia. Just as the military balance may be shifting, how much will Asia's economic strength mean it steps away from America, or changes the nature of the relationship.

The sense of potential changes is coming not just from Asia, but from the American side to, says Dr Jamie Metzl of the US Asia Society.

"The old certainties, flawed as they were, are now breaking down," he said.

"There also is, I think, a sense across the region that the pax-Americana, as it's been experienced over these last 60 years, is in many ways changing. And that again is something that is - whether it's good or bad is something that will be determined, based on what happens in this region and in the Asia-Pacific community.

"And that, I think, is the first fundamental challenge that we're facing. I think that with the Obama administration, we are going to see - we are seeing - a transfer to being very, very open to multi-lateral engagements."

In entering this conversation with Asia, America is conceding that it has got a few things wrong, and is going to make some changes.

"We have, from time to time, made some mistakes, including at times being arrogant in dealing with others, but we always correct our course," said the US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, during a speech in Singapore last month on America's role in the Asia Pacific.

"The president, similarly, has spoken of a more collaborative and consultative foreign policy - one committed to forging common solutions to common problems. Do not get me wrong - the United States will continue to be assertive on the international stage. We will protect our allies and our interests. We are, as a former secretary of state said, an indispensible power. But we are also one that is aware of our own limitations. Aware that the world, and nearly all the challenges that we face, are simply too complex to go it alone."

Part of the question is how much Asia might turn away from the US because of the lessons of the global recession. What if Asia spends its massive savings on its own infrastructure, rather than investing in the US? And what if Asia becomes its own great market, rather than looking to the US as the ultimate export destination?

In going into recession, Asia has again seen itself tied to the United States. The great decoupling did not happen - Asia could not decouple itself from the US economy as it went over the cliff.

But in recasting the future, can there be a new effort at decoupling?

"This crisis might end up economically pushing Asia apart from America," said the head of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, Simon Tay.

"The term was 'Decoupling Mark 2'...the rebalancing of Asia, while important, might actually trigger off a kind of separation. There was some pointing of fingers - some of the advice American have given us in the past were not followed by themselves."

Much of Asia's finger-pointing has been at the breakdown of the so-called 'Washington Consensus' on how the global economy should be run. Those Washington institutions - the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund - are to be reshaped, with more say for Asia, and less of the traditional dominance by Europe and the US.

Shift the lens from economics and trade to defence, and some of the same influences are working on Asia-US relations. The degree of cooperation and transparency may still be limited, but the US - the pax-Americana - is talking about changing its ways.

The US is getting ready to sign ASEAN's treaty of Amity and Cooperation, which would open the way for America to join the East Asia summit. The US says its ready to take more account of regional norms, to respond to what it calls new strategic realities in Asia.

"Here we are trying to overcome the conventions and habits of the Cold War," said US Defence Secretary Robert Gates.

"For decades after World War 2, Asia's security architecture mostly reflected a 'hub-and-spokes' model, with the United States as the hub, and the spokes representing a series of bilateral alliances with other countries that did not necessarily cooperate much with each other."

Secretary Gates goes so far as to talk of a very real shift in US defence strategy in Asia.

"What we have seen in the US approach to Asia in recent years, and what I believe we will see in the future is a very real shift, that reflects new thinking in US defence strategy overall," he said.

"A shift that places ever greater emphasis on building the capacity of partners better to defend themselves."

A true shift in strategic thinking in the Asia Pacific would offer a chance to reassure and engage China, and ensure that arms modernisation did not move towards an Asian arms race. The new language from Washington means the chance for that discussion is open.

"The opportunity exists for a fundamental shift, and I think that Obama is open to that," said Ralph Cossa, President of the Pacific Forum at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

"I think the most profound part of it, as far as Asia is concerned, is the willingness to essentially enter into a true strategic dialogue with the Chinese. I think that the one thing that is very clear in this administration, as [compared to] the last ten administrations, is that the alliances are a foundation, but they're not enough - you need to build on that.

"Clearly, I think there is much more receptivity to multi-lateral cooperation, to seeing some type of meaningful multi-lateralism in East Asia. We're just now starting to see the beginning of that."

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