FEATURE: China, India and climate change

Pressure is mounting on both China and India to make strong commitments at Copenhagen.

Both have long argued that developed countries should take on the biggest burden when it comes to cutting emissions, but in recent weeks Beijing and New Delhi have indicated they're also prepared to take strong action.

Just what will be expected of them is still to be hammered out.

PHOTO

Developed countries also want to see strong commitments from two of the world's major polluters - China and India. [Reuters]

AUDIO from Connect Asia

Developing countries face Copenhagen pressure

Created: 07/12/2009

Joanna McCarthy

Last Updated: Mon, 7 Dec 2009 15:36:00 +1100

It's a divide world leaders have been unable to bridge since climate negotiations were launched two years ago in Bali.

Developing nations want industrialised countries to take the lead, in recognition of their historic contribution to global warming. Developed countries also want to see strong commitments from two of the world's major polluters: China and India.

Julian Wong is a senior policy analyst at the Center for American Progress

"There's a growing sense that, given the urgency of what the science tells them of climate change, we need to have every country involved, whether its developed or developing," he said.

"There's just simply no way that the world's going to meet the climate challenge if we exclude large, major economies in the developing world, such as China, India and Brazil.

"This is not necessarily a departure from the so-called 'common but different' shared responsibilities principle, that led to the Kyoto protocol architecture, but rather it is suggesting that, in the developing-country world, major economies that have much more developed economies compared to the poorer African nations, these are countries that can take on some responsibility in this new agreement."

But the extent of that responsibility is what's still in doubt -- and will be one of the major sticking points in Copenhagen, says Melbourne University scientist and IPCC co-author David Karoly.

"Most young children understand the principle that if you have a limited resource that you're trying to distribute - for instance a chocolate cake at a birthday party - that the easiest way is to give everyone the same slice," he said.

"And the same approach can be used with allocating a finite resource like carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere - the same amount per person.

"And that approach of equal per-person emissions provides a very clear guidance of a fair and reasonable approach to allocating emissions, and based on that approach, Australia has six times more emissions than the average across developed countries, five times more emissions per-person than China, and Australian emissions need to be decrease much, much more than Chinese emissions."

A developing problem

But others say the focus on the developed world is misplaced, among them Kenneth Green, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

"Unless China and India agree to sharply limit their emissions, which, by the way, I don't actually think they should - I think a priority for China and India is getting their people out of abject poverty and misery - but without them agreeing to limit their emissions, the developed countries could basically shut down their economies entirely and it would have no effect on preventing or reducing predicted climate change in the future," he said.

"The fact is, China is the biggest emitter now. It's going to be a massive emitter and if India continues its development, or joins China in developing the way it is, it's going to join them. They're going to use affordable coal electricity, and unless they decide to eschew development, anything that the developed world can do, really, is a drop in the ocean."

Smaller developing countries are also calling for China and India to commit to big cuts - including Heherson Alvarez, the Philippines chief negotiator at Copenhagen.

"China says for instance that it's a low carbon-emitter and that it's a late-comer in growing carbon dioxide," he said.

"While that may be true, if you put together the population of China and India, I think their combined emissions would overwhelm the emissions of the United States, because by sheer numbers the volume is terrifying."

But he says there is still a strong moral argument that developed countries should be taking the lead.

"We are hopeful that in the negotiations in Copenhagen, the developed countries, which have the wherewithal, the capacity to make these adjustments," he said.

"They have accumulated enough wealth precisely because of the use of cheap fuel that comes from fossil fuels, and because of this technical and financial ability to do so, [it is hoped] that they would look into a program which could spare the whole of mankind from further pain and continuing disaster of climate change."